A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
