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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.