How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.