Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”