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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.