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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's Premier League encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, took the lead, and might have added to their advantage. But, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of securing wins on the road from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe some fortune was due, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, though, fortune is favoring Villa.

The Numbers Of an Unlikely Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a clean sheet in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been better in only six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula should not, yet pundits have been saying that for weeks, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their performances or if their level of play can rise to match the results.

This seems unsustainable be possible, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa continue winning.

A Core Trait: Resilience

Fighting back is not just a feature of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those were secured this season, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at influencing games through his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins replaced Malen, who had struggled with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, strengthening the center and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could easily have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of players producing pieces of match-winning quality to turn games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's seldom the entire team playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its midway point, they have to be considered as in the title race, arguably more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant test of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.