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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still